DailyFanRacing - DFS Preview Coke 600 & Monaco
THE BEST WEEKEND IN MOTORSPORTS IS FINALLY UPON US! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter, and I couldn’t be more excited to kick off this week!
Weekend in Review
North Wilkesboro certainly lived up to the billing, bringing back the old school feel that diehard fans like me have missed for so long! Some fans thought the All-Star race was boring, but I guarantee that the fans in attendance were not disappointed.
Kyle “Yung Money” Larson swept the weekend, winning the Craftsman Truck Series race and following it up with a $1,000,000 win in the Cup Series All-Star Race. I’ll admit that the trucks put on a better show than Cup, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. There were more drivers on the track, more inexperience, and more differentiation in equipment. In the Cup Series, these guys are the best at what they do and have similar equipment. Sometimes, especially when it’s hard to pass, one driver takes the rest of the field behind the woodshed for an “old-fashioned ass-beating” as Larson said.
One crucial pit call on an early caution played an integral part in the results Sunday night, but it was still fascinating to see Larson go from dead last after a speeding penalty all the way to first and never relinquish the lead after that. 23XI Racing teammates Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick rounded out the podium after followed the same pit strategy as Larson.
Anyway, the nostalgia was awesome to feel and we can only hope North Wilkesboro keeps its place in NASCAR in some way moving forward. As big as the weekend was for NASCAR, it was nothing compared to what;s on tap this weekend for the world of motorsports!
We have a massive 4 race weekend ahead making this the best time to join over at DailyFanRacing.com. Sign up to get the best coverage of both NASCAR and F1 DFS coverage at one place!!
Looking Ahead
From a DFS perspective, it’s going to be a busy one with Trucks, Xfinity, F1, and Cup all racing this weekend. From a general motorsports perspective, Sunday is the best day of the year if you ask me! F1 gets the day started with one of its most well-known races, the Monaco Grand Prix. Then, the Indianapolis 500 takes center stage in the afternoon slot. Last, but not least, the NASCAR Cup Series will have the Coca-Cola (or World for my traditionalists out there) 600.
The best part? Unless there are significant delays, the races are staggered enough to get to enjoy all of them! The worst part? I can already hear the nagging of my wife for my lack of productivity. Little does she know that my focus and productivity will be on making sure that our DailyFanRacing subscribers are prepared to welcome in Memorial Day weekend with a bang!
Weekend Schedule of Events
Friday, May 26
7:30am ET - F1 Practice #1
11:00am ET - F1 Practice #2
1:35pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Practice/Qualifying
3:35pm ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
8:30pm ET - North Carolina Education Lottery 200 (Trucks)
Saturday, May 27
6:30am ET - F1 Practice #3
10:00 - F1 Qualifying
1:00pm ET - Alsco Uniforms 300 (Xfinity)
7:05pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
Sunday, May 28
9:00am ET - Monaco Grand Prix (F1)
12:45pm ET - Indianapolis 500 (IndyCar)
6:00pm ET - Coca-Cola 600 (Cup)
While IndyCar doesn’t have DFS offerings on DraftKings or PrizePicks, the 107th running to the Indy 500 is a great bridge between F1 and NASCAR on Sunday afternoon.
F1 Monaco GP
What's up everyone?! Ryan Larkin here with the F1 section of the newsletter.
Formula One returns after an unexpected extended break after last week’s race in Imola was canceled. Monaco is perhaps the most prestigious race on the F1 calendar but the most important day of the week is not race day… It is qualifying day.
Monaco is the smallest and tightest track that F1 races on. Due to its layout, it is incredibly hard, if not impossible to make passes on track. As a result, qualifying is as important as anything else this entire weekend.
Last year saw Ferrari throw away the win with horrific race strategy surrounding the rain and tire changes. They took a home win away from Leclerc and handed it to Sergio Perez.
Personally, I love everything about the Monaco GP. Even the lack of passing and the difficulty that is racing there.
From a DFS perspective, this race is rather predictable. That is because passing is damn near impossible. The biggest impacts on the DFS slate will be drivers making mistakes or crashing out. The most important aspect of this slate will be finding ways to differentiate yourself from a chalk field while not building bad lineups.
We will do our best to break this down on the Premium Podcast once we know the starting lineup.
Charlotte Motor Speedway Preview
Charlotte Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt quad-oval with 24° banking in the turns. It is the quintessential cookie-cutter intermediate track that NASCAR became enamored with in the ‘90s. There is also low to moderate tire wear, a big change from the past few weeks in Darlington and North Wilkesboro.
Comparable tracks include Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Michigan. All of these are at least 1.5 miles in length with similar tire wear, although all but Texas are less steep in the corners. In order to get the full picture, you could also look at Dover, Darlington, and Homestead-Miami. While their shapes and tire wear are different, they could still assist in assessing performance and speed on intermediate tracks.
North Carolina Education Lottery 200 - Craftsman Truck Series
Friday, May 26, 2023
To kick off the weekend’s festivities, the trucks will be racing 134 laps on Friday night. Over the past 10 races here, 72% of the green flag laps, on average, have been run under green, meaning there are approximately 80 dominator points up for grabs.
Oddly enough, there has not been an obvious trend for the optimal lineups in this race from a lineup construction perspective. For what it’s worth, there have only been 4 races at Charlotte since DraftKings started offering slates on the lower series, one of which was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
74% of top 10 DraftKings scores since 2013 have come from drivers starting 20th or better, while just 6% of top 10 scores were attributed to drivers starting outside the top 30. The optimal lineup appearances are fairly even throughout the field though. It should be noted that the lineup will likely need at least one driver starting in the top 10 and another starting 25th or worse.
Six of the past 10 Truck Series races at Charlotte have featured two main dominators.The past three years have followed since trend. However, one of the main dominators in 2022 and 2021 had a DNF, ruining their DFS viability; in 2020, since the field was set by a metric during the pandemic, the dominator was outscored by place differential. Three of the races that did not follow this trend had three drivers share the majority of dominator points, while the remaining exception was in 2014 when Kyle Busch led 97% of the laps.
Alsco Uniforms 300 (Xfinity)
Saturday, May 27, 2023
The green flag for Saturday’s race is scheduled to drop at 1:00 pm ET. The race length is set for 200 laps (300 miles) and has historically seen an average of 74% of laps run under green flag conditions, yielding approximately 180 dominator points. 200 laps is a lot for an Xfinity Series race, especially on an intermediate track, so nailing the dominators will be crucial to DFS success.
Like the Truck Series, top 10 DraftKings scores have come predominantly from drivers starting in the front half of the field, but optimal lineups have been more evenly distributed. Drivers starting 21st to 30th, however, have made just 12% of optimal lineups, likely because they don’t have the dominator potential of those ahead of them or the place differential upside of those starting worse.
Each of the past four Xfinity races at Charlotte has had at least two drivers starting 30th or worse in the optimal lineup. Likewise 8 of 10 races since 2015 have seen at least one top 10 DraftKings score achieved by a driver starting 30th or worse.
I mentioned that choosing the right dominators will be crucial, and there is a clear trend as far as starting position goes. There have been 15 instances of a driver leading more than 60 laps at Charlotte since 2015. 14 of the 15 drivers started in the top 5. Furthermore, 12 of them started 3rd or better. The only exception? Kyle Busch started 18th in 2020 during the pandemic and drove to first.
Coca-Cola 600
Sunday, May 28, 2023
Sunday night’s Cup race is the longest race on the NASCAR schedule. It’s the only race longer than 500 miles and was originally thought of as a race of attrition. Engines were pushed to their limit to make it through the race, and drivers had to stay mentally and physically intact for all 600 miles. While it’s still a long, grueling race, engine building has come a long way, and drivers are in better shape than ever before, mitigating a lot of the race’s original challenges.
The Coca-Cola 600 is set for 400 laps. Only Bristol and Martinsville have races with more laps, but they’re short tracks. Dover and Richmond are also 400 laps but they’re shorter as well. Why does this matter? Lineup construction is usually pretty similar across all intermediate tracks, but with over 230 dominator points up for grabs, there needs to be a stronger focus on dominators.
The 10th best score over the past 10 races at Charlotte has been, on average, 4 points higher than the past 10 intermediate track races at comparable tracks. This is partly due to more dominator points, but also the chance for more issues to occur with the longer race length.
I’ll have much more information in my members-exclusive breakdown on Sunday, but here’s one interesting nugget. Over the past 10 races at Charlotte, the drivers starting 1st and 3rd are the only ones with a median number of laps led greater than 2. Do with that what you will.
Final Lap
Go ahead and plan out your menus for meals on Sunday because it’ll be too late if you wait. On second thought, give that job to your better half to keep them involved while you sit back, relax, and enjoy what motorsports has to offer.
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR, F1, and MMA everyday.
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for ALL FOUR DFS SLATES this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.Be sure to sign up at DailyFanRacing.com
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!