DailyFanRacing NASCAR & F1 DFS Newsletter - Vegas & Bahrain
What an incredible start to the 2023 season! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter! We have a massive week ahead with FOUR major races taking place including the return of F1!!
Of course, we will have complete premium DFS coverage of all four races at DailyFanRacing.com.
Weekend in Review
The last race weekend at Fontana’s current configuration featured a few firsts as well. ‘Twas a bittersweet ending to one of the best tracks on the circuit.
The week started off with Mother Nature making her presence known as all on-track activity was canceled on Saturday. As a result, Cup and Xfinity both raced on Sunday without practice or qualifying.
The Xfinity Series race was dominated early on by Cole Custer as expected until he got into the wall, ruining his day. The JGR cars were especially strong as rookie Sammy Smith battled often for the lead and John Hunter Nemechek put on a clinic, leading 49 laps on his way to the win in his first full-time season racing for JGR.
After two strong performances resulting in zero wins at the Clash and Daytona 500, Kyle Busch was able to get the job done in Fontana. It was his first win since joining Richard Childress Racing, and it was evident he’s gained many new fans as the usual boos were covered up by cheers. Ross Chastain had the most dominant performance Sunday though, leading 91 laps and running top 5 nearly the entire race.
It’s a shame to see Fontana go, but it was fun while it lasted.
My PrizePicks plays went 8-2 on the weekend, yielding a +3.25 unit return. If you have played 1 unit on the favorite two picks and 0.5 units on all 5 picks each slate, you’re up 5.75 units after the second week of the season. Join us in the DailyFanRacing Discord where we’re hoping to keep the wins coming the rest of the season!
ICYMI, we have partnered with TheSolver, one of the best optimizers in the industry. Though it is a separate subscription, it is incredibly powerful with an easy to use interface, and the best part is that Ryan Larkin’s projections will be the default for every slate for our DailyFanRacing subs. The Solver just gave us a 5% off coupon as well so use promo code NAS5 for 5% off your Solver subscriptions
Weekend Preview
It’s an exciting week as F1 makes its return at the Bahrain GP on Sunday. All 3 NASCAR series are set to take on Las Vegas Motor Speedway as well. Needless to say, business is picking up, but don’t worry, DailyFanRacing will have you prepped with everything you need to succeed on every slate this weekend!
F1 Bahrain GP
What’s up guys, Ryan Larkin aka Larkin8 taking over for a bit here to insert some F1 content to the newsletter this week. Personally, I am so damn excited for the F1 season to start. Formula 1 has a special feel for me that I do not get with any other sport. Simply put: I love it.
With that said, I am thrilled that we get another year of F1 DFS action and we can hopefully continue crushing like we did last year.
The new season kicks off from Bahrain and we should once again get a great show. This track lends itself well to overtaking and battling between drivers. Last year showed us just that with an incredible battle between Leclerc and Verstappen.
Every team will have made big changes to the car designs over the last few months which certainly leads to a lot of unknowns. A team like Mercedes for instance will be trying a lot of different aero concepts for this year that they hope will get them closer to Red Bull at the front.
These type of changes can have an impact on how we build our DFS lineups.
Last year, the Mercedes struggled with tire warm up but they had incredible long run race pace. We could count on them being slower than the Ferrari drivers over one lap in qualifying but in the race they were relatively equal. This might not be the case in 2023.
Essentially, we have lost the predictability at this point in terms of knowing where each team stands. There is a lot to learn with the new season but I can not wait to unpack everything after the practice and qualifying sessions.
We will have our full slate content available including an extra long podcast to start the year where we dive into team changes and general F1 knowledge.
We deliver the best NASCAR and F1 premium DFS content. Every aspect is covered and we find the right leverage to win you money. Now is the best time to sign up with a huge FOUR race weekend ahead!! Join Now at DailyFanRacing.com
NASCAR
NASCAR continues its west coast swing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Surprisingly, similar to Fontana, it’s projected to be another cold weekend in Vegas with the weekend high temperature barely reaching 60° and the low near freezing.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval, known for its fairly steep banking and multiple racing grooves. Though not considered a high tire wear track (like last week in Fontana), it is beginning to show some age and ranks slightly above average in tire degradation rate. Comparable tracks on the schedule include Kansas, Charlotte, Texas, and, to a lesser extent, Michigan.
Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 - Truck Series
Friday, March 3, 2023
The Craftsman Truck Series will race at 9:00pm ET on Friday night. The race is scheduled for 134 laps, yielding a maximum possible 91.1 dominator points. A single practice session is scheduled at 4:35pm on Friday with qualifying following immediately after, so there will certainly be a time crunch to build lineups.
Last year’s Vegas race saw the KBM trucks combine to lead 86 of the 134 laps en route to a dominating win for Chandler Smith (who is now in the Xfinity Series). As has become regular in the Truck Series, 38.8% of the race was run under caution.
Friday night’s race will mark the return of a prominent successful Truck Series driver that must be discussed. Kyle Busch will be making his first start of the 2023 season, though for the first time since 2008, it’ll be in a Chevrolet Silverado. Obviously, his presence has a significant impact on lineup construction, but is he worth the high price tag?
In the 5 Vegas races since 2018, Busch has 3 wins and two 2nd-place finishes. In his 20 Truck Series starts over the past four years, he has averaged 77.4 DraftKings points from an average starting position of 7th. If he starts near the front, he’s likely to rack up dominator points. If he starts near the back, he has more place differential upside than basically everyone. But what if we doesn’t win the race?
Busch finished 2nd to teammate John Hunter Nemechek at Vegas in 2021, but he still scored 80 fantasy points. Kyle has scored the most DraftKings points in 13/20 starts over the past 4 years. It should be noted that last season was a “down year” by his standards and we’ve yet to see how his team has adjusted to the new manufacturer.
Alsco Uniforms 300 - Xfinity Series
Saturday, March 4, 2023
The Xfinity Series will race at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday evening. The race is scheduled for 200 laps (300 miles), yielding a maximum possible 137.3 dominator points. Unlike the Truck Series, practice and qualifying will take place the day prior, giving us plenty of time to prepare lineups.
In last year’s spring race, JR Motorsports drivers led 139 laps but came away without the win as Ty Gibbs found his way to Victory Lane. They got their revenge in the fall though as Josh Berry and Noah Gragson combined to lead 152 laps and finish 1-2. In fact, all four JRM drivers finished in the top 7. Needless to say, they’ve been dominant on this track type, but Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, and the RCR drivers are sure to give them a strong battle.
Speaking of RCR, Kyle Busch is entered in this race for Kaulig Racing as well. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him run all three series in a weekend, but it’ll be interesting to see what the Vegas native is able to do in equipment that is lacking compared to his competitors. During his time at Joe Gibbs Racing, he was in arguably the best car in the series every time he strapped in. While Kaulig Racing has had top 5 potential, they’ve been a distant third behind JRM and JGR on intermediate tracks.
Pennzoil 400 - Cup Series
Sunday, March 5, 2023
The green flag for Sunday’s race is scheduled to drop at 3:30 pm ET. The race length is set for 267 laps (400 miles), yielding a maximum 184 dominator points.
Last spring, the Chevrolets were fast with six finishing in the top 10. Alex Bowman came away with the win and Hendrick cars all finished 9th or better, while Ross Chastain led a race-high 83 laps. However, three JGR drivers led 27 or more laps each, while the fourth driver had a race-high 34 fastest laps.
In the fall, Trackhouse Racing continued to flex its muscle as Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez combined to lead 99 laps. After such a strong performance earlier in the year, Hendrick Motorsports laid a dud, leading no laps and their top finisher being Noah Gragson (filling in due to Bowman’s concussions) in 11th place. Penske Racing picked up their slack though; Joey Logano led 32 laps en route to a win and Ryan Blaney led 39 laps before being involved in an accident.
As I previously mentioned, comparable tracks include Charlotte, Kansas, Texas, and Michigan. For the Cup Series, however, I will be approaching my research slightly differently. Given the debut of the Next Gen car last season, that data may be more relevant than a driver’s performance in 2021 and beyond. Thus, I will be including all intermediate tracks dating back to the beginning of 2022 in my analysis.
If we learned anything last week in Fontana, it’s that the Earnhardt-Childress Racing engines appear to be a force to be reckoned with in 2023, at least early on. Trackhouse Racing teammates Chastain and Suarez were incredibly fast, in addition to race winner Kyle Busch. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars appeared to be a step behind while Hendrick and Penske were still top 5 contenders. It will be interesting to see how that changes this week assuming practice and qualifying go on as scheduled.
Final Lap
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR, F1, and MMA everyday. I’ll also be dropping my favorite PrizePicks and/or Underdog plays each weekend!
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for ALL 4 races this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup and F1. Loads of next level content that nobody else in the industry can touch.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!