DailyFanRacing NASCAR & F1 Race Preview - Dover & Baku
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter!
Weekend in Review
If Cup races at Talladega continue to look like this past Sunday, Eric Church may one day regret ever writing a song about it. The racing was okay, but nothing like the Talladega we’ve come to know and love. A track once famous for its constant three-wide pack racing has become a battleground for dueling trains of cars. The third line is now nonexistent; every time a car tried to make something happen on the outside, the 2nd line suffered. Hopefully, NASCAR comes up with a fix soon.
Kyle Busch did come away with his 2nd win of the season though, exceeding his win totals from each of the past two seasons at JGR. Bubba Wallace was in prime position to win the race until a late block attempt caused him to wreck on the final lap. None of that was as devastating as the damage from several of the wrecks this weekend or the apocalyptic infield after the race. Thankfully, everyone is okay.
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Looking Ahead
After a three-week hiatus, F1 returns this weekend with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. The NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series will be in Delaware at Dover Motor Speedway. After the past month’s schedule consisting of a dirt track, short track, two drafting tracks, and a road course, we finally get some consistency with normal ovals over the next month. If you thought we were dominating earlier this season, just wait.
Here’s the schedule of races on the docket this weekend:
Saturday, April 29, 2023 - 1:30 pm ET - A-TEAM 200 (Xfinity)
Sunday, April 30, 2023 - 7:00 am ET - Azerbaijan GP (F1)
Sunday, April 30, 2023 - 2:00 pm ET - Wurth 400 (Cup)
Xfinity practice and qualifying will take place on Friday night, so our weekend will be spread pretty easily to be able to build lineups for all three series without much overlap.
Dover Motor Speedway is a 1.0-mile steep-banked concrete true oval. Some consider it a larger version of Bristol Motor Speedway, though less exciting. The lack of run-off areas and tight corners have caused several wrecks over the years, earning the track its “Monster Mile” moniker. It can be tough to pass, making track position a huge priority.
Though it’s a unique track, there are a few different angles to analyze for the weekend. We can look at other concrete tracks, such as Bristol and Nashville, but Nashville is flatter. Bristol seems to be the closest comparison. Other tracks that I would look at would be Darlington and Homestead-Miami, which are both steep banked with multiple racing grooves including right against the wall.
Xfinity Series - A-TEAM 200
Saturday’s race is scheduled for 200 laps, yielding a maximum 135 dominator points available. With this many potential points and difficult passing, it is imperative to get the main dominators in our lineups this week if you want to have success.
JR Motorsports has been decent so far in 2023, but definitely not up to their level of performance in recent seasons. Team owner Dale Jr has said on his podcast that instead of race-winning cars, they’ve lost some speed and are top 5 cars on most weekends. While that may be true, this could be the week they turn things around. Josh Berry won here last spring, and all 4 JRM drivers finished in the top 5.
If you think that’s impressive, check out Justin Allgaier’s past nine finishes here at Dover: 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd. That’s right, he has finished in the top 3 in 89% of them! He also is one of the strongest drivers at Bristol and Nashville, making him the Xfinity Series’ King of the Concrete, and my pick to win this week.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
What’s up everyone, Ryan Larkin here with a quick F1 preview. After an early season break, the F1 show returns to the ultra fast streets of Baku. Baku has been on of the most interesting races in recent years, with some fantastic moments and surprise podium finishers. It certainly has become one of my favorite races.
Many teams will be bringing updates for their cars to Baku. Mercedes is certainly getting the most publicity regarding their updates, but make no mistake, nearly every team on the grid will have new components primed to make their cars faster.
This will be the first thing for us to pay attention to. It will be important for us to figure out if any potential changes can result in surprise finishing positions for some drivers. Perhaps, a team like McLaren has found some speed and can challenge for points again.
Another important aspect of this weekend is that this will be the first sprint race of the year. The sprint race weekend is different in 2023 and will make things interesting for sure.
On Friday, we will get FP1 and qualifying to set the grid for the Grand Prix on Sunday. Technically, you can start building lineups after qualifying on Friday. However, with the new schedule, we will have a sprint race on Saturday. The sprint race on Saturday will no longer set the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix like in recent years but it will instead be a race on its own.
There will be a qualifying session in the slot where FP2 used to be that will set the grid for the sprint race. The sprint race in theory will take the place of FP3. Points will be awarded to the top 8 finishers in the sprint race.
It is important to not that this sprint race will have no impact on the DFS side of things except that we might have a better idea of how the cars will race and which drivers we should focus on.
Heading into the weekend there are quite a bit of unknowns, but I am really looking forward to the racing. For complete coverage of the F1 DFS be sure to check out my content at DailyFanRacing.com.
Cup Series - Wurth 400
The final race of the weekend is scheduled for 400 laps, meaning there are a substantial 275 dominator points available. As previously mentioned in the Xfinity Series section, choosing the right drivers as dominators will be crucial to building winning lineups this week.
In both the Xfinity and Cup Series, 83% of the top 10 DraftKings scores in the past 10 races have come from drivers starting in the top 20. With the high bankings, passing difficulty, and track length of just one mile, cars starting near the back are lapped fairly quickly. Also, drivers starting near the front obviously have the best chance of scoring those crucial dominator points.
In fact, excluding the 2nd race of 2020 (since it was the back end of a doubleheader where the starting lineup was determined by inverting the previous race’s finishing position), every optimal lineup has featured at least two drivers starting in the top 10. On the other hand, just 2% of top 10 scores and 5% of optimal lineup appearances have come from drivers starting worse than 30th. While place differential is always enticing, those midfield starters will likely play an important role in winning lineups this weekend.
It’s wide open, so I look forward to seeing how practice and qualifying go. Regardless, as usual, my driver-by-driver breakdown, Luke’s slate strategy article, and Larkin’s premium podcast will give you all the information you need to make the best lineup decisions on Sunday!
Final Lap
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As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for all three races this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup. Join us at DailyFanRacing.com
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!