DailyFanRacing NASCAR & F1 Race Preview - Darlington
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter! Allow me to begin by saying happy early Mother’s Day to all the women out there doing what they can to keep the rest us in line!
Weekend in Review
Kansas once again proved why it’s one of the most underrated tracks on the NASCAR circuit. The Cup Series race was full of lead changes, comebacks, and hot tempers. Noah Gragson decided he’d be the one to teach Ross Chastain a lesson post-race. Sadly for him, Ross backed up the smack with a mean right hook. We’ll see if anyone else tries Chastain in the coming weeks, but until then, expect his aggressive driving to the front to continue.
In the end, Denny Hamlin came away with the win after getting into Kyle Larson on the last lap. If you’re a DailyFanRacing subscriber, you’d know that both Larkin and I were on these two drivers as the favorites to win the race. If not, what are you waiting for?!
The stars were out in Miami this past weekend for the F1 Miami Grand Prix. Glitz, glamour, and lavish lifestyles ruled the day, at least during the pre-race. Drivers, on the other hand, complained about the amount of extracurricular activity pre-race and having to be in their firesuits for an extended period of time. I get it. Down here in St. Lucia, I’ve sweat like crazy in 90+° weather with much less clothes on. Good luck with that image…
Anyway, Max Verstappen proved why he’s the best in the world as he went from 9th to 1st to edge his Red Bull Racing teammate, Sergio Perez. Once again, Fernando Alonso joined them on the podium with a 3rd place finish.
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Track Preview
This weekend, F1 has the week off while all three premier NASCAR series will be taking on the track “Too Tough To Tame”, Darlington Raceway. This is my personal favorite track on the schedule from an entertainment and DFS perspective. If you’ve never been to a race and want to change that, Darlington, SC should be near the top of your list.
Darlington Raceway, also known as “The Lady in Black”, is a 1.33-mile oval with steep bankings mostly favoring drivers who prefer to run the high groove next to the wall. It also has a unique egg-like shape with turns 1 and 2 having a wider radius than turns 3 and 4. Why is this important? The tiniest lapse of focus could cause a driver to confuse the turns and end up with a famous “Darlington stripe” or worse, out of the race.
Another key aspect of racing at Darlington is managing tire degradation. Its abrasive surface wears tires easily, forcing drivers to try to manage them so that they can still be fast throughout a full run. The combination of the worn out surface and the silica from the local sandy beaches make for exciting racing. From a DFS perspective, fast laps will be spread out, especially if someone has to make an unscheduled pit stop for fresh tires while others are in the middle of a run. Also, different drivers will be fast at different points based on how they manage their tires, creating the opportunity for close racing.
If looking to compare other tracks, it can be a little difficult given the uniqueness of Darlington. It’s not a typical 1.5-mile track but it does race more like an intermediate track than a short track. It is most similar to Homestead-Miami with the fastest line around the track being as close to the wall as possible, tires having a significant impact, and its steep corners.. Darlington’s steep banking could also be compared to Bristol and Dover, though they’re both made of concrete. You could also look at Fontana as another track with high tire wear. Gateway is the same length and is also egg-shaped, but it doesn’t correlate near as much.
What you will notice if you look at these tracks is that the same drivers appear at the top of the charts consistently. Many of them often have dirt racing backgrounds which can be useful due to the amount of throttle control needed to succeed and run the fastest line.
Let’s take a look at the schedule for this weekend:
Friday, May 12 - 3:05 pm - Craftsman Truck Series P&Q
Friday, May 12 - 5:05 pm - Xfinity Series P&Q
Friday, May 12 - 7:30 pm - Buckle Up South Carolina 200 (Trucks)
Saturday, May 13 - 10:35 am - Cup Series P&Q
Saturday, May 13 - 1:30 pm - Shriners Children’s 200 (Xfinity)
Sunday, May 14 - 3:00 pm - Goodyear 400 (Cup)
Both the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series races this week are scheduled for 200 miles (147 laps), meaning there are a maximum of 100 dominator points available. Given the amount of cautions we typically see though, it’s more likely less than 85 points in each race. Let’s take a look at some trends that may be useful when building winning DFS lineups this week!
Buckle Up South Carolina 200 (Trucks)
Friday, May 12, 2023
This will be just the 5th time in the past 10 years that the trucks have raced at Darlington. In fact, prior to last season, the previous three races had no practice or qualifying. The lineups were set by a mathematical formula, and as expected, drivers with little experience struggled.
Despite this lack of qualifying, the polesitter in all four races has led at least 60 laps and achieved a top 2 DK score. At least two drivers starting in the top 10 have led over 30 laps in each race as well.
77.5% of top 10 DK scores across the past 4 races came from drivers starting in the top 20. Furthermore, 50% came from drivers starting 10th or better. Each optimal lineup featured at least 2 drivers starting in the top 10 and 3 to 4 starting in the top 20.
Some of the lesser-funded teams do not have the access to as many tires as the top tier teams. At a track where tire degradation is a huge issue, these teams struggle to gain significant place differential. They can still be optimal, but it’s tougher than at other tracks.
Shriners Children’s 200 (Xfinity)
Saturday, May 13, 2023
While we do have more data at Darlington for the Xfinity Series, there is quite a bit more variance observed than in the Truck Series. Similarly, there has been no practice or qualifying for 4 of the past 5 races here, which could contribute to some wrecks. Other reasons for possible carnage include inexperience and the low downforce package raced in the Xfinity Series, making the cars harder to handle.
The past 10 races at Darlington have seen at least two drivers lead 30+ laps. In 8 of those races, one of the main lap leaders has started 4th or better.
Even though drivers starting in the top 10 have accounted for 47% of top 10 DK scores, each optimal lineup has featured at least 3 drivers starting outside the top 20.
Typically, in general terms, lineup construction should start with two potential dominators, unless there is a top tier driver that provides a clear place differential upside (starting 25th or worse with top 5 finishing potential).
Goodyear 400 (Cup)
Sunday, May 14, 2023
Sunday’s race is set for 400 miles (293 laps), yielding a maximum possible 184 dominator points based on the average percentage of green flag laps.
I’ll go into my strategy for this race more in my driver-by-driver breakdown, but here are a few notes I observed when researching for this weekend’s race at Darlington.
(In 2020, one of the races was the second half of a doubleheader where the field was inverted to set the starting lineup, so I am excluding it from trend analysis.)
In 8 of the past 9 Darlington Cup Series races, the optimal lineup has featured at least two drivers starting in the top 10 with at least one starting 6th or better. Surprisingly, the starting positions for optimal lineups has been fairly even over the last 10 races throughout the field as seen below.
Final Lap
I cannot wait to see the action on track this weekend! Darlington should be entertaining, regardless of how DFS goes, but if last week was any indication, we’re coming for the top again. Join us at DailyFanRacing as we attempt to conquer “The Lady in Black” this weekend!
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As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for all races this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!