DailyFanRacing NASCAR & F1 Weekend Preview - Richmond/Texas/Australia
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter!
Weekend in Review
Well, if I’m being honest, this past weekend had me more frustrated than a three-legged dog trying to poop on a frozen lake. COTA presented us with as much variance as this year’s March Madness. The winners were still some of the top drivers expected to win, but the rest of the field took each other out more than Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore in 50 First Dates.
Okay, glad you made it through those cringy, shouldn’t-even-be-called-jokes one-liners, but seriously, chalk bombs went off left and right, and few escaped unscathed.
In the Truck Series race, Crafton, DiBenedetto, and Kligerman disappointed as chalk, while Zane Smith won the race over Kyle Busch due to an ill-timed caution. The Xfinity race surprisingly went just about as expected. AJ Allmendinger dominated the race, winning over William Byron, while other strong drivers like Cole Custer, Austin Hill, and John Hunter Nemechek all scored negative points.
I knew that the lack of stage breaks would have an effect on the racing, but I didn’t know that it would turn the first half of the Cup race into a nice Sunday afternoon nap. On a track as long as COTA with drivers spread out, I was desperate for a restart so that I could see a pileup. Unfortunately, I got more than I bargained for as it took three green-white-checkered restarts and nearly an hour to run the final 2 laps of the race.
The biggest takeaway from Sunday’s race, however, is that the lack of speed on road courses in 2022 had no effect whatsoever on Tyler Reddick. He put on an absolute clinic in his #45 23XI Racing Toyota Camry. The Chevrolet camp still seemed to be the strongest overall with Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, and William Byron all contending for the lead at various parts of the race.
It might not have been the weekend I was hoping for, but that didn’t stop our DailyFanRacing community from continuing to pile up wins. As you’re probably growing accustomed to at this point, check out some of the big wins by our subscribers from this past week!
Ryan here for a quick promo on our team winning. I was thrilled to see both Brett and Luke take home 4-figure pay days this weekend. We had a lot of winners in the discord overall but I really wanted to highlight the winning that our contributors had this week. I believe we have the best team in NASCAR DFS and these results show it!
Join us at DailyFanRacing.com!!
Looking Ahead
We have another MASSIVE 4-RACE weekend on tap this weekend! It’s been a nice sweat on the previous occasions where we had four races in a two-day period, and I expect this weekend to be no different. DailyFanRacing subscriber CloakedMistborn is looking to keep his perfect winning percentage going with a third consecutive F1 DraftKings GPP takedown! While we’re certainly proud of him, we’re all vying to be the one on top Sunday morning. Pressure’s on!
Here’s the schedule of races on the docket this weekend:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 - 1:00 pm ET - ToyotaCare 250 (Xfinity)
Saturday, April 1, 2023 - 4:30 pm ET - SpeedyCash.com 250 (Trucks)
Sunday, April 2, 2023 - 1:00 am ET - Australian GP (F1)
Sunday, April 2, 2023 - 3:30 pm ET - Toyota Owners 400 (Cup)
It happens rarely, but we have three different track types across the four races to prepare for. The NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series will be at Richmond Raceway, a flat, short track, while the Trucks will be racing at an intermediate track, Texas Motor Speedway. F1 will do what F1 does best down under in Melbourne, Australia.
Xfinity Series - ToyotaCare 250
Richmond is a 0.75-mile short track with relatively flat banking and above average tire wear. Some refer to it as Phoenix Raceway in reverse since both have rounded front stretches and wider corners requiring more throttle control. Other comparable tracks include Phoenix, New Hampshire, and to a lesser extent, Martinsville.
Saturday’s race is scheduled for 250 laps, meaning there are roughly 160 dominator points available. It goes without saying that the increased number of laps makes nailing the right combination of dominators essential to DFS success this weekend.
Let’s take a look at some Richmond trends for the Xfinity Series…
Over the past 30 years, 84.5% of the race winners started in the top 10. Furthermore, 69% (nice) of those race winners started in the top 5! Since 2018, drivers starting 5th or better have achieved a top 10 DraftKings score six times as often as a bottom 10 score. This track type is typically hard to pass on, allowing frontrunners to stay in place and rack up dominator points and wins.
On the other hand, drivers starting 25th or worse finish with a bottom 10 DraftKings score three times as often as they achieve a top 10 score. Place differential points come mainly via attrition or wrecks, unless a top tier team is starting in the back. Due to the short track length, backmarker cars can get lapped fairly quickly, limiting their place differential upside.
Truck Series – SpeedyCash.com 250
Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt quad-oval intermediate track with less than average tire wear. Comparable tracks include Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Kansas. Since its repave in 2017, it’s become synonymous with boring in the Cup Series. Luckily for us, the Truck Series is synonymous with chaos. Plus, look on the bright side. If it does happen to be boring, it’s more predictable and a shorter sweat on our way to winning.
One thing that must be discussed for this week’s race is a modification of pit stops.
What does this mean for us? Drivers starting in the front are less likely to suffer from variance on pit road. Likewise, drivers in the back of the pack will not have the opportunity to use pit strategy to gain positions. In what was already a race dominated by the elite teams, this just makes them even stronger.
Saturday evening’s race is scheduled for 147 laps, yielding an approximate 88 dominator points. 16 (88.9%) of the past 18 race winners at Texas started 6th or better. Over the past 10 Truck Series races at Texas, 27 drivers had led 20 or more laps. 81.5% of those drivers started in the top 10, while 63% started in the top 5.
The different track types and tight schedules may be difficult to keep up with, but don’t worry, Ryan Larkin will have you prepared for success in his premium race breakdowns! Speaking of Ryan…
Australian GP - Formula 1
The excitement is building for the Australian Grand Prix, which is set to take place this week. The Albert Park circuit in Melbourne will once again play host to the Formula One traveling circus.
Two years ago the circuit underwent a major redesign, with a new layout that saw a better racing product last year than in years past. The new layout features a new, extra long straight, which provided more opportunities for overtaking.
I believe this track, potentially more than any other will suit the Red Bull cars. . The new layout should also play to their strengths, as their speed on the straights has been unmatched this year.
The competition I will really be paying attention to is Aston Martin vs. Mercedes vs. Ferrari. The gap between these three teams is very small and I expect all three to be pretty equal this weekend.
Overall, the Australian Grand Prix promises to be an exciting race, if you can manage to stay up that late! Of course, we will have full slate breakdown and every bit of the race covered at DailyFanRacing.com. Hopefully we can continue our success and take down our third straight big contest to start the year.
Toyota Owners 400 - Cup Series
The final race of the weekend is scheduled for 400 laps, meaning there are a substantial 275 dominator points available. As previously mentioned in the Xfinity Series section, choosing the right drivers as dominators will be crucial to building winning lineups this week.
Over the past five years, Joe Gibbs Racing has been the cream of the crop at Richmond, which is fitting considering Toyota is the title sponsor of the race. All JGR drivers have had at least an 80% top 10 finish rate over the past 10 Richmond races. Among other drivers, Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano have consistently performed well at this track type, both leading over 50 laps in the race here last fall.
Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t seen the success they’ve had at other tracks translate here for the most part over the past few years. That may change this year, though. If Phoenix was any indication, they may have hit on something with this new short track aerodynamic package. Kyle Larson and William Byron topped the charts in green flag speed there last month.
It’s wide open, so I look forward to seeing how practice and qualifying go. Regardless, as usual, my driver-by-driver breakdown, Luke’s slate strategy article, and Larkin’s premium podcast will give you all the information you need to make the best lineup decisions on Sunday!
In case you haven’t heard yet, DailyFanRacing has partnered with TheSolver, and we have been crushing it. Though it is a separate subscription, it is incredibly powerful with an easy to use interface, and the best part is that Ryan Larkin’s projections will be the default for every slate. Our members have been enjoying maxing out 150 lineups with ease and scoring GPP takedowns. Use code ‘NAS5’ for 5% off your first subscription!
Final Lap
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR, F1, and MMA everyday.
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for ALL FOUR races this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!