DailyFanRacing NASCAR Preview - Martinsville
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back again with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter!
Weekend in Review
Another Easter weekend, another year of wishing the spring Bristol race was back on concrete… Don’t get me wrong; this was the most enjoyable racing they’ve had on the dirt so far, but it has run its course. I don’t know which is muddier: the future of Bristol as a dirt track or the front grills after Sunday night’s race.
Joey Logano barely broke a sweat, dominating the Truck Series race Saturday night from start to finish. While he isn’t necessarily a dirt track savant, he performed well on the far too frequent restarts, making it hard for anyone to challenge him for the lead.
Unfortunately for Joey, Sunday night was a completely different story as he spun three times before accruing enough damage to knock him out of the Cup race early. Kyle Larson, the overwhelming betting favorite, joined him soon thereafter due to damage from an incident with Ryan Preece. Preece intentionally wrecked Larson after they made incidental contact earlier in the race. Considering Larson was a prime target for us this weekend, it hurt a little bit, but luckily, he was able to surpass his PrizePicks projection of 68.5 laps led before that happened, giving us 4 of 5 correct picks this week!
Track Preview
Martinsville will be the site of actual short track racing this weekend for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. It is a 0.500-mile flat, short track with a shape resembling that of a paperclip. The closest comparable track is New Hampshire since they both have longer straightaways and tight corners, but Martinsville is its own beast.
The last time we were here, Ross Chastain set social media ablaze with his (now illegal) ‘Hail Melon’ move. Not only did it seem like something straight out of a video game, it had huge implications as Chastain punched his ticket to the championship 4, knocking out rival Denny Hamlin in the process.
While that was certainly exciting, it allowed us to overlook how disappointing the racing was overall. Short tracks like Martinsville are often hailed for their non-stop action, but last spring’s Cup race with the new car had fans questioning the on-track product. NASCR worked on improving the short track package in the off-season, so hopefully we’re in for an exciting weekend!
Check out the schedule for this weekend’s Martinsville action:
Friday, 4/14 - 3:00 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Practice
Friday, 4/14 - 3:35 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Qualifying
Friday, 4/14 - 5:00 pm ET - Xfinity Series Practice
Friday, 4/14 - 5:35 pm ET - Xfinity Series Qualifying
Friday, 4/14 - 7:30 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Race
Saturday, 4/15 - 4:35 pm ET - Cup Series Practice
Saturday, 4/15 - 5:20 pm ET - Cup Series Qualifying
Saturday, 4/15 - 7:30 pm ET - Xfinity Series Race
Sunday, 4/16 - 3:00 pm ET - Cup Series Race
The good thing about Martinsville being a short track is that practice may be more useful this week. With the shorter practice sessions that NASCAR has implemented, it has been difficult to gauge lap time fall off, but at a track where lap times are around 20 seconds, teams should be able to get a good amount of laps completed in the allotted time.
Long John Silver’s 200 - Craftsman Truck Series
Friday, April 14, 2023
Come on, now. Which five of you are keeping Long John Silver’s open? Talk about a blast from the past; I haven’t rang the bell in LJS in over 10 years.
Anyway, Friday night’s Long John Silver’s 200 is scheduled for 200 laps, yielding a maximum possible 136 dominator points. Over the past 4 Truck races at Martinsville, there have been an average of 80 caution laps, meaning that there may be as little as 104 dominator points available. That’s still a decent amount, but with the expected caution rate, laps led will as much value as fast laps despite having a lower point value.
Cup drivers Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch will be competing in the race, so there are sure to be quite a few ‘stars-and-scrubs’ lineups out there. Obviously, qualifying could have an impact on that, but they have to be the favorites to win this race.
Speaking of qualifying, a driver starting on the front row has led 55 or more laps in 9 of the past 10 Martinsville Truck races. Also 79% of the drivers who achieved top 10 DraftKings scores in those races started in the top 20, while only 5% started 30th or worse. Two of those performances came last spring when race winner and Cup Series driver William Byron started 32nd and long-time Truck Series veteran Johnny Sauter started 36th. If a driver doesn’t have experience or great equipment, the chances of a strong score from a bad qualifying effort are even more slim. It just goes to show how difficult it is to pass at Martinsville.
As we have become accustomed to, practice and qualifying will take place the same day as the race with about a 3-hour window to build lineups in between. Have no fear though; Ryan Larkin’s breakdown will give you all the information needed to win your DFS contests!
Call811.com Before You Dig. 250 - Xfinity Series
Saturday, April 15, 2023
The names of these races keep getting better and better. I especially love the period right before the 250.
The green flag for Saturday’s race is scheduled to drop at 7:30 pm ET. The race length is set for (yep, you guessed it) 250 laps, yielding a maximum 171.4 dominator points. Like the Truck Series, the last 5 races at Martinsville have averaged 80 caution laps, which would drop the amount of dominator points available to 139.
I am so excited for this race in particular. The Xfinity Series is stacked this year with the usual JRM stalwarts like Allgaier and Berry, newcomers like Chandler and Sammy Smith, and old faces in Nemechek and Custer. Plus, there’s something that just feels right about Saturday night short track racing under the lights.
The top lap leader from both 2022 Martinsville races, Ty Gibbs, isn’t in the field, which opens things up considerably. It’s still likely that the polesitter is one of the top dominator options as they have led 42 or more laps in each of the past 5 races here.
Drivers starting in the top 10 have achieved a top 10 DraftKings score at a 44% clip here, a la the Truck Series. However, drivers starting in the back have had higher amounts of success compared to the Trucks. In fact, the lowest number of top 10 scores and optimal lineup appearances came from drivers starting 11th to 20th. At a track like Martinsville, this makes sense. Drivers in the top 10 have more likelihood to lead laps while drivers starting further back have more place differential upside, especially when there is enough carnage to account for 80 caution laps.
NOCO 400 - Cup Series
Sunday, April 16, 2023
It’s so weird to see a 400 lap race scheduled at Martinsville. Back in my day, you looked forward to those 500 lap races at Bristol and Martinsville twice a year. Okay, boomer. Regardless, I surely hope that the racing on Sunday afternoon is exciting. NASCAR has taken quite a few blows in the court of public opinion recently, and continued struggles with the on-track product at one of their most storied tracks could compound that.
Looking at the past 10 Cup Series races at Martinsville, only 5% of top 10 DK scores have come from 30th or worse. The optimal lineup percentage for those drivers though has been 16%. Why the difference? Well, besides occasions where top drivers start from the rear, punts have been needed for salary relief to fit the top dominators.
In the 2021 fall race, Chase Elliott led 289 laps. Denny Hamlin also led over 100 laps but he was wrecked late in the race and thus not optimal. Because of this, we didn’t need the extra salary from deep punts to fit all the dominator points. Now, let’s take a look at the 2022 races. Both races featured two drivers leading over 150 laps. Also, as we’ve seen on many occasions with the new car, fast laps were more spread out with four drivers in each optimal lineup picking up at least 15 of them. In order to fit these massive points, punts like Cody Ware and Ty Dillon snuck into the optimals despite finishing just 29th and 23rd, respectively.
Of note, 9 of the past 10 optimal lineups have featured a driver starting 1st through 3rd, and in all 10 races, two drivers have combined to lead 350 or more laps. You must hit on the dominators to have success this weekend!
As always, Ryan, Gordo, and Jason will be live Thursday at 9pm ET previewing the Cup Series action. Be sure to check out the show and subscribe to the channel!!
Final Lap
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As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for all races this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup. Join us at DailyFanRacing.com
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!