DailyFanRacing Newsletter - Bristol
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter. We head into a cutoff race for the Cup Series with several narratives in play. Even better though is that NASCAR will be at Bristol Motor Speedway this week!
Let’s first take a look at the upcoming schedule of events:
Thursday, September 14th, 2023
4:00 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Practice/Qualifying
9:00 pm ET - Trucks: UNOH 200
Friday, September 15th, 2023
2:35 pm ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
4:35 pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
7:30 pm ET - Xfinity: Food City 300
Sunday, September 16th, 2023
7:30 pm ET - Cup: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
The Truck Series begins its second round of the playoffs, while the Xfinity Series kicks off its playoffs and the Cup Series has an elimination race for four contenders. Bristol is always sure to bring the fireworks, and with the stakes as high as they are, it’ll be interesting to see who crumbles under the pressure.
Bristol Motor Speedway is a half-mile concrete oval with the steepest banking in the series, excluding the superspeedways. There’s little room for lap cars to get out of the way, causing carnage to occur often under the lights. It’s short track racing on steroids. While there is no directly correlated track, we have multiple perspectives to analyze.
The lazy grouping would be short tracks under a mile in length, but Richmond, Martinsville, and Bristol are all very different. Bristol is one of three concrete tracks on the circuit in addition to Nashville and Dover, which are larger in length. Personally, I think the closest comparisons are other steep banked tracks, such as Darlington, Homestead, and Dover. Drivers that tend to have success at once of these tracks tend to do well at the others as well. Did you notice Dover made both of those lists? Other than track history at Bristol, I’d look at Dover first, followed by Darlington, Homestead, and Nashville.
UNOH 200 (Craftsman Truck Series)
This race is scheduled for 200 laps, but due to the frequent wrecks, there have been an average of 57 caution laps over the past 5 Bristol races, meaning there are approximately 120 dominator points available.
In each of the past four Truck Series races at Bristol, a driver starting on the front row has led at least 89 laps, propelling them to a top 5 DraftKings score. Across that same interval, 45% of top 10 DraftKings scores came from drivers starting 10th or better. When it’s tough to pass and laps tick off quickly, punts are less likely to pay off without significant attrition. Just four times has a driver starting worse than 30th still had a top 10 score and all were on top tier teams.
Food City 300 (Xfinity Series)
Bristol is one track where the Xfinity and Truck Series have very similar rates of attrition. The race is set for 300 laps, but there have been an average of 8.7 cautions for 64.2 laps. Likewise 48.3% of top 10 DraftKings scores come from drivers starting 10th or better, while the top 20 accounts for 76.7% of such scores.
Over the past 6 Xfinity races at Bristol, 15 drivers have had 50+ laps, ten of which starting 5th or better. All 15 did start in the top 10 though, so nailing the right dominators who are starting near the front will be crucial for DFS success this week.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Cup Series)
Saturday’s race is widely considered one of the “crown jewel” events in the sport. Drivers give all they have to compete for the unique trophy, sword, and bragging rights that come with a Bristol win. “The Last Great Colosseum” has been responsible for a number of feuds over the years, providing excitement for weeks to come.
In case you haven’t guessed already, choosing the right dominators is the most important part of winning DFS lineups at Bristol. There are a whopping 500 laps scheduled, meaning there have been an average of 313 dominator points available over the past 10 races here.
Last year, Chris Buescher took home the win, and with the way RFK Racing has been running lately, a repeat win isn’t out of the question. Kyle Larson has the best career driving rating at Bristol, barely edging out Kyle Busch, while Chase Elliott has the best career average finish here. Martin Truex Jr won the regular season championship, but after two poor performances, he finds himself in danger of advancing in the playoffs. He, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Bubba Wallace in particular are in dire need of strong runs Saturday night.
Final Lap
We will have much more lineup construction tidbits and advice in our race breakdowns, so join DailyFanRacing today to take advantage of the most comprehensive fantasy NASCAR coverage in the industry!
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR and F1 every week.
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!