DailyFanRacing Newsletter - Championship Weekend
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK IS HERE!
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter one last time. Before we dive into previewing the weekend ahead, allow me to begin by saying that it has been an absolute honor to be part of this amazing DailyFanRacing team, writing this newsletter and your Cup breakdown article each week. The dopamine hit that comes from seeing the consistent success of our subscribers has made it such a rewarding proposition.
With that being said, this is likely my last week providing NASCAR DFS content. The time commitments of my full-time job as a pharmacy manager and the desire to spend more time with my young family have made it clear to me that this needs to be my last season providing consistent content. Again, I wish nothing but the best for all of you and am confident in Ryan Larkin’s vision to make DailyFanRacing the #1 source of NASCAR and F1 fantasy sports coverage in the industry.
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Let’s first take a look at this weekend’s schedule of events:
Thursday, November 2nd, 2023
8:00 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Practice
Friday, November 3rd, 2023
2:00 pm ET - Formula One Qualifying
6:05 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Qualifying
7:05 pm ET - Xfinity Series Practice
8:05 pm ET - Cup Series Practice
10:00 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Championship Race
Saturday, November 4th, 2023
3:30 pm ET - Xfinity Series Qualifying
4:35 pm ET - Cup Series Qualifying
7:00 pm ET - Xfinity Series Championship Race
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
12:00 pm ET - F1: Rolex São Paulo Grand Prix
3:00 pm ET - Cup Series Championship Race
F1 will be racing in Brazil this weekend, but all eyes will be on Phoenix where NASCAR’s season will come to a close. I find it odd that each series will have practice on a different day than their race, yet same-day qualifying will be in effect for the Trucks and Xfinity Series. As usual, there will be a time crunch in building lineups, but we hope to still go out with a bang!
Phoenix Raceway has been the site of NASCAR’s championship race for the past three years. Though fans have clamored for a different site, namely a return to Homestead-Miami Speedway, the warm, dry weather and strong ticket sales have taken priority when setting the stage for the title races. Especially in the Cup Series, this race can be quite boring with pit strategy and track position having the most impact on the results.
Phoenix Raceway is a 1.0 mile tri-oval with relatively flat banking that races mostly like a short track. Unlike races at intermediate tracks or superspeedways, nailing the right combination of dominators is essential to DFS success at short tracks due to the increased number of laps and thus, dominator points available. However, the potential for attrition through wrecks remains high, allowing the possibility of punt plays having some success.
Comparable short, flat tracks include Richmond, New Hampshire, and, to a lesser extent, Martinsville, all of which are flatter tracks less than or equal to 1 mile in length. While Richmond and Phoenix have rounded front stretches and wider corners requiring more throttle control, New Hampshire and Martinsville resemble paperclips, putting more emphasis on precise braking. Hence why some drivers succeed at two of them but not the others.
Restarts are some of the craziest on the schedule as drivers fan out to the apron just past the start/finish line in an attempt to gain some positions before diving into turn 1. In all honesty, those are the most exciting parts of the race, but they can also provide variance that will wreck our DFS lineups.
Craftsman Truck Series Championship
Final 4 Contenders: Corey Heim, Ben Rhodes, Carson Hocevar, Grant Enfinger
Of the four, Heim has been the fastest and most consistent in 2023. Rhodes is the only former champion of the group. Hocevar has been especially strong on short, flat tracks this season, while Enfinger appears to be the sentimental favorite in GMS Racing’s final race in the series.
Last year’s championship race saw the contenders finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 20th. 2021 was slightly different as they finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 12th. In 2021, the championship drivers finished 1st, 2nd, 10th, and 13th. What I’m trying to say is that it’s rare for the race to not be won by the champion.
Two of the three optimal lineups for this race at Phoenix have featured exactly two championship finalists. 2021 was the exception since none of them won the race and cheaper options scored dominator points. While that’s certainly possible again this week, I think it’s less likely. I’ll have at least one championship driver in every lineup I make.
Xfinity Series Championship
Final 4 Contenders: John Hunter Nemechek, Sam Mayer, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer
Even more extreme than the Truck Series, here are the finishing positions of the championship contenders the past 3 years:
2022: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 13th
2021: 1st, 2nd, 12th, 14th
2020: 1st, 5th, 8th, 9th
Over the past 11 Xfinity Series races at Phoenix, the polesitter has scored an average of 32.4 dominator points. In fact, they have led 33 or more laps (average: 71) and earned at least 10 fastest laps (average: 33.5) on each occasion. The polesitter has been in the optimal lineup in five of the past seven Phoenix races and will likely be a prime target for lineups this Saturday. Furthermore, 36 of the 43 Xfinity Series winners at Phoenix have started 5th or better.
Since the track reconfiguration in 2018, 55% of drivers with a top 10 DraftKings score came from a top 10 starting position. It can be very hard to pass at Phoenix. Therefore, place differential points are harder to come by unless chaos ensues or a top tier team has to start in the rear. Furthermore, 31% of top 10 scores came from the top five, while just 23% of the occurrences came from drivers starting worse than 20th!
Cup Series Championship Race
Final 4 Contenders: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, William Byron
Here are the finishing positions of the contenders over the past 3 years:
2022: 1st, 3rd, 10th, 28th
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th
2020: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Though last year differed, you can tell that whether it be orders from NASCAR, looser allowances on equipment, or simply coincidence (yeah, right), the contenders always tend to find themselves up front at the end of this race.
Of the contenders, Larson is the only former champion in the group. He also won the first race of the last round, giving him a few extra weeks to prepare for this weekend. Blaney has caught lightning in a bottle in these playoffs and found speed he’d been missing most of the season. Bell is in a similar spot as last year, sneaking in with a win in the Round of 8, and his prowess on this track type is a threat. Byron is limping into the championship, but he’s been the most consistent of the four over the entire season.
Regardless, all four drivers finished 6th or better in the spring race this year, so practice and qualifying should give us a better indication. Pit crews could also make the biggest difference this week, in which case I’d give the edge to the Hendrick drivers. As a side note, 31 of the past 37 Cup Series winners at Phoenix have been either a Cup Series champion or NASCAR Hall of Fame driver.
Final Lap
We will have much more lineup construction tidbits and advice in our race breakdowns, so take advantage of all we have to offer! As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup and F1.
Again, it’s been a pleasure doing what I can to help you all win money this NASCAR season with DailyFanRacing. Good luck this week, and have a wonderful offseason!