DailyFanRacing Newsletter - Kansas
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter. It seemed like Saturday night was going to be another absolutely dominating performance for the Toyotas, but in the end, all four JGR Toyotas finished outside the top 15. Kyle Larson came away with his first Darlington win, locking himself into the Round of 12 in this year’s playoffs, while others like Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell are left wondering what could have been.
Let’s first take a look at the upcoming weekend’s schedule of events:
Friday, September 8th, 2023
3:35 pm ET - Craftsman Truck Series Practice/Qualifying
9:00 pm ET - Trucks: Kansas Lottery 200
Saturday, September 9th, 2023
10:05 am ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
12:00 pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
5:30 pm ET - Xfinity: Kansas Lottery 300
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
3:00 pm ET - Cup: Hollywood Casino 400
I may be mistaken, but I get the feeling Kansas really wants us to forget about the Wizard of Oz imagery and gamble on down the yellow brick road with those race names. Formula One has the week off, while both Trucks and Xfinity will have same day practice and qualifying. Don’t worry though, we here at DailyFanRacing will have everything you need to destroy the competition!
Kansas is a 1.5-mile “cookie-cutter” intermediate with low to medium tire wear. Comparable tracks on the schedule that could be used for analysis are Las Vegas, Charlotte, Texas, and Homestead. It used to be one of the more boring races on the NASCAR schedule, but the recent changes to the car have made the racing on these intermediate tracks the best that the sport has to offer.
Kansas Lottery 200 (Craftsman Truck Series)
While the Truck Series has become synonymous with wreckfests, Kansas is one of the few tracks with less carnage. It’s a relatively easy track to drive with its multiple grooves. Due to the low amount of expected attrition, punt plays are less likely to be optimal in DFS lineups. In fact, just 6% of top 10 DraftKings scores over the past 11 Kansas races have come from drivers starting worse than 30th. Even more notable is that five of those six scores came from drivers on upper tier teams (Chastain, Deegan, Kligerman) who finished 20th or better.
22 of the 24 Truck Series races at Kansas have been won by a driver starting in the top 10. The only exceptions were the 2nd leg of the doubleheader in 2020 when the lineup was set by inverting the finishing order from the previous race and this spring. Excluding that doubleheader race, over 85% of drivers leading double-digit laps in the last 11 races at Kansas started in the top 10 as well.
Of course, anything can happen, especially in the Craftsman Truck Series, but 60% of the top 10 DraftKings scores in the spring race came from drivers starting in the top 20, so it further illustrates the lack of passing and attrition seen at Kansas.
Kansas Lottery 300 (Xfinity Series)
While the Trucks and Cup Series will be making their second trip to Kansas this season, Saturday will be the Xfinity Series’ only race at Kansas in 2023. 21 of 23 Xfinity races here dating back to 2001 have been won by a driver who eventually drove full-time in the Cup Series. As we’ve become accustomed to, this series places a premium on the quality of equipment.
Last year’s race was called due to rain, allowing Noah Gragson to get the win after Ty Gibbs had led 66 laps. In each of the four races prior to 2022, a Ford driver had been the main dominator. Even more shocking is that Brandon Jones won here in 2019 and 2020! Yes, the same Brandon Jones who has continually let us down weekly as a chalk DFS play. If nothing else, that shows you how easy this track can be to drive if he can keep his car out of the wall here.
Of note with just two weeks left until the playoffs start, the stakes are high, especially for drivers like Parker Kligerman, Riley Herbst, and Daniel Hemric.
Hollywood Casino 400 (Cup Series)
Overall, there haven’t been many consistent trends at Kansas in the Cup Series with regard to optimal lineups or top DraftKings scores, so waiting until after practice and qualifying will give us a clearer view. It should be noted that this race does typically warrant a two dominator build with at least one of them starting in the top 5.
Toyota has dominated at Kansas recently, winning the last three races and six of the last eight, making it a great spot for playoff drivers like Bubba Wallace and Christopher Bell in need of strong finishes.
Speaking of strong finishes, here are some drivers who could contend for the win on Sunday:
William Byron: most wins this season and in the Next Gen era overall
Kyle Larson: no pressure after winning last week, led the most laps in spring race
Martin Truex Jr: tops in average green flag speed on intermediates, low wear tracks
Denny Hamlin: best average finish at Kansas dating back to 2020
Needless to say, I’m expecting a battle between Hendrick Motorsports and JGR/23XI Racing. Then again, after Michigan, RFK Racing may have a dog in the fight. Regardless, I can’t wait to see what this second leg of the playoffs holds!
Final Lap
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As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!