DailyFanRacing Newsletter - New Hampshire/Spain
What’s up, everyone?! Ryan Larkin here and I hope you guys are doing well and are ready for some racing DFS action this weekend.
Schedule of Events
Friday, July 14th
4:05 pm ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
Saturday, July 15th
10:00 am ET - F1 Qualifying
12:35 pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
3:30 pm ET - Sci Aps 200 (Xfinity)
Sunday, July 16th
9:00 am ET - Spanish GP (F1)
2:30 pm ET - USA Today 301 (Cup)
One of the biggest stretches of the racing season starts this weekend with 17 races in 30 days. Loads of F1 & NASCAR action during this next month means you get the best bang for the buck. Join us now at DailyFanRacing.com to get the best in Racing DFS coverage!!
Sci Aps 200 (Xfinity Series)
Nine of the past Eleven Xfinity race winners at New Hampshire started on the front row with the exceptions being Justin Allgaier from 3rd two years ago and Christopher Bell from 14th in 2021 when there was no qualifying. JGR has won 7 of the last 8 Xfinity races here at New Hampshire including three straight with Christopher Bell from 2018-2021.
In seven of the past eight New Hampshire races dating back to 2016, the top lap leader has led at least 93 laps. 12 of the 13 main dominators started 6th or better, with 8 of them starting 1st or 2nd. Being that this is a 200 lap race, dominator points will be crucial and we know where they are likely to come from.
We do not typically see a lot of strong place differential plays. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, the last two races here has seen peak levels of Xfinity stupidity resulting in a ton of cautions and high DNF rates.
The 2022 race saw 13 DNFs and drivers like Allmendinger and Gibbs finish multiple laps down. We also had two DQ’s that day but those did not impact DFS. Last year saw more of the same with accidents involving Hill and Custer, Herbst and Austin Dillon (who was in the 10 for Kaulig), as well as, Sam Mayer getting involved in a wreck with Joe Graf and Mosack who were driving for Gibbs and Sam Hunt respectively. If we get more Xfinity chaos then those mid pack drivers could be the key to this slate.
Driver to Watch: Christopher Bell $13,500
Bell is -110 to win this race. Absolutely bonkers number there but logical given the history that both Bell and JGR have at this track. As for the DFS side of things, Bell will be the deciding factor of this slate. There is a good chance he will see 50%+ ownership and how he does will directly determine the winning lineup.
My expectation is that he dominates and wins.
Crayon 301 (Cup Series)
New Hampshire is yet another flat 1-mile race track that seems to be filling up the schedule these days. It feels easy to say Phoenix and Gateway are the comps for this track but I am a big fan of using Richmond as the main comp.
Like all of the 3/4 to 1 1/4 mile flat circuits, track position is vital. We tend to see our race winners and lap leaders come from inside the top 10 and that has really been true during the NextGen era.
In 2022, we had three drivers led 40+ laps. Kurt Busch started 3rd, led 40 laps, and finished 10th. Bell led 42 laps after starting 5th and won. And Truex led 172 laps from the pole and finished 4th. Last year, Martin Truex led 254 laps and won after starting 2nd. He basically didn’t give anyone else a shot.
We did have a few place differential plays that finished toward the front last year but those were Larson, Harvick, and Hamlin. Not really a surprise that they overcame poor qualifying efforts to finish well.
In last year’s race, we saw Ricky Stenhouse stay out on old tires and restart first after the lap 30 caution. Within 5 laps he had dropped to 19th. On the lap 168 caution, Logano, Harvick, and Larson took 2 tires and were able to hang inside the top 6 for the short 12 lap window before the end of stage 2. Larson then pitted for 4 tires, restarted 14th and drove to 6th in 6 laps. Tires do matter a bit more here than perhaps last week but there is the opportunity for drivers to take 2 tires to gain some track position. It also helps having a good car and being an elite driver in really good cars like Larson, Logano, and Harvick.
A 301 lap race means there are a lot of dominator points to be had and that will certainly be a main focus for lineup building. I also believe it’s best to use as many great drivers as you can. This might seem obvious, but when you look at the best average finishes it’s Hamlin, Keselowski, Truex, Larson, etc. which isn’t a surprise. The frequency in which they deliver a good result is the key though and I expect them all to content for top 5 finishes. I believe you can lean into the elite drivers a bit more this weekend.
Driver to watch: Martin Truex Jr $10,500
Since 2016 when Furniture Row switched to Toyota and started their technical alliance with JGR and including his current stint driving for JGR, Truex has destroyed the competition here. He has led 100+ laps in 6 of those 10 races and he led 83 laps in another race. He finished 7th or better in 8 of those races and finally got the win he deserved last year. His recent form has been his best leading 254 laps & 172 laps in the last two races here.
Whether he replicates those performances or not, Truex will be a major factor when it comes to lineup construction this week.
I have be slacking when it comes to making win graphics this year but I promise I will start doing better in the future. In the interim, let’s not forget the wise words of Bart Simpson heading into this weekend. Also, I do want to give a big shout out to Chris who took down the main F1 contest last time out for the Canadian GP slate. That was his 2nd F1 takedown of the year I believe so hopefully he can keep up the winning ways.
Formula 1 - Spanish Grand Prix
The Spanish Grand Prix has been one of the most boring races for as long as I can remember. However, they did use a new layout last year that eliminated the final chicane and the racing was much better overall.
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is just shy of three miles in length. It is one of the most challenging circuits when it comes to tire management and downforce is key. Teams will need to strike that balance of not having too much drag while also taking care of the tires.
I believe this will be a Red Bull masterclass. This style of track should fit their car way better than the street circuits in recent weeks and I expect a Max Verstappen win. Of course, from an entertainment aspect, I would love to see Norris and Leclerc battling with Max for the win but I don’t project that to happen this time out.
Driver to watch: Lewis Hamilton
High tire wear tracks and Lewis Hamilton go together like Hawk and Tuah. I like his mid range price point and I believe he has the ability to deliver this week and beat Russell. I’m actually hoping Russell out qualifies him again so he comes in at a lower ownership number.
Final Lap
We will have much more lineup construction tidbits and advice in our race breakdowns, so join DailyFanRacing today to take advantage of the most comprehensive fantasy racing coverage in the industry!
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR and F1 every week.
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!