DailyFanRacing Newsletter - Texas
As expected, Bristol Motor Speedway put on a hell of a show last weekend! What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter. Tempers flared in the Xfinity Series race, while the extremes of disappointment and elation in an elimination race ruled the night in the Cup race. Former Cup Champions Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano were eliminated from the playoffs while longshot Bubba Wallace advanced. We won’t be at Bristol again this week, but the high stakes are sure to continue the excitement!
Let’s first take a look at this weekend’s schedule of events:
Saturday, September 23rd, 2023
2:00 am ET - F1 Qualifying
10:35 am ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
12:35 pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
3:30 pm ET - Xfinity: Andy’s Frozen Custard 300
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
1:00 am ET - F1: Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix
3:30 pm ET - Cup: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400
This week, NASCAR heads down to Fort Worth for Xfinity and Cup races at Texas Motor Speedway. While the Craftsman Truck Series raced here back in the spring, this will be the first visit in 2023 for the other series. Speaking of the trucks, they have the week off. On the other side of the globe, F1 will be running the Japanese Grand Prix.
Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile intermediate quad-oval and is sometimes considered a “sister track” to Charlotte Motor Speedway due to its shape. Since it was repaved in 2016, it has seen lower tire wear, giving us several tracks to compare and analyze, including Kansas, Charlotte, Vegas, and, to a lesser extent, Michigan. One could also argue that all intermediates could be used, which would add Darlington and Fontana, but they’re different enough that I plan to look at the first group of tracks.
Despite being fairly wide, the racing groove at Texas over the past few years has been narrow, making it difficult to pass, thus making it slightly more predictable than other tracks. Then again, with the Next Gen cars, the only constant is variance.
Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 (Xfinity)
Over the past 8 Texas races, 7 optimal lineups have rostered at least 3 drivers starting in the top 20. In fact, in both of last year’s races here, there were at least 3 from the top 15. The lone exception was a race where Kyle Busch dominated, despite a poor starting position, forcing lineups to focus more on place differential. With 200 laps scheduled and little passing, it’s easy to see why track position is king and dominators are needed.
Additionally, at Texas over the last 12 races, drivers achieving a top 10 DraftKings score started outside the top 30 on fifteen occasions, while drivers starting between 20th and 30th did so on twenty-six occasions. That means that, on average, 3.4 drivers starting in the back half of the field achieve a top 10 DraftKings score. Though it can be hard to come by, place differential is still important. Obviously, better equipment usually wins out, especially in this series. When trying to decide between drivers in this range with equal equipment and similar price, choose the one starting farther back.
Lastly, the past 8 Xfinity optimal lineups at Texas have rostered at least one driver priced at or less than $6,000. Of those who have been optimal, all but one achieved at least 6x value, so knowing that a similar performance is within the range of outcomes is imperative.
AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (Cup)
As the first leg of the second round of the playoffs, drivers will be looking to maximize their points this weekend at Texas, especially with the landmines of Talladega and Roval looming large over the next two weeks.
Each manufacturer has won 3 of the past 9 Texas races. If looking at intermediate track races in 2023 though, Ford has had a clear speed disadvantage. Championship favorites, Martin Truex Jr, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin, have shown the most speed on intermediate tracks this season, so it should come as no surprise if Sunday turns into another JGR vs. HMS battle for the win. If anyone is going to pull off the upset, however, I’d look at Kyle Busch or the 23XI Racing stable of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace, as their green flag speed has been better on intermediate tracks than any other track type this season.
On the other end of the spectrum, the SHR Fords, particularly Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe, have been significantly worse at intermediate ovals than short tracks, superspeedways, and road courses. Then again, with Kevin Harvick eliminated from the playoffs last week, SHR is likely to experiment with setups in preparation for next season and could theoretically hit on something. We won’t know until after practice on Saturday, though!
Final Lap
We will have much more lineup construction tidbits and advice in our race breakdowns, so join DailyFanRacing today to take advantage of the most comprehensive fantasy NASCAR coverage in the industry!
If you haven’t done so already, join our FREE DailyFanRacing Discord, where we are chatting about NASCAR and F1 every week.
As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup and F1.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!