DailyFanRacing Newsletter - Watkins Glen
What’s up, everyone?! It’s Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS) back with your weekly DailyFanRacing newsletter. The streak of unlikely winners rolls on after Michael McDowell absolutely dominated last week in Indianapolis, locking himself into the playoffs. After a rough start to the season, Ford has now won the past 3 races. Can they do it again this week?
Let’s first take a look at this weekend’s schedule of events:
Saturday, August 19th, 2023
10:30 am ET - Xfinity Series Practice/Qualifying
12:30 pm ET - Cup Series Practice/Qualifying
3:30 pm ET - Xfinity: Shriner’s Children’s 200 at the Glen
Sunday, August 20th, 2023
3:00 pm ET - Cup: Go Bowling at the Glen
Be sure to catch the DailyFanRacing Podcast where Ryan and Jason will preview the action from Watkins Glen… Also, there will be a special announcement regarding the future of the show/channel. Watch Here:
This week, the NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series travel up to Watkins Glen, New York. It’s not often that the schedule has back-to-back road courses, but here we are. With just two races left until the playoffs, it’s sure to be an action-packed weekend with serious implications.
Watkins Glen is a 2.45-mile, 11-turn asphalt road course in upstate New York. For over 20 years, it and Sonoma were the only road courses on the NASCAR schedule. Since 2018, there have been an influx of other road courses, placing more emphasis on them for teams trying to make the playoffs. The good thing is that Watkins Glen has more history for us to analyze. Like last week at Indy, however, there are significant differences including no more stage breaks.
Shriner’s Children’s 200 at the Glen (Xfinity Series)
While place differential is certainly important for DFS lineups this week, choosing a winner takes a different perspective. Excluding 2021 when the lineup was set by a mathematical formula, the race winner has started inside the top 5 for 12 straight races dating back to 2009!
Last year saw Kyle Larson fend off (then) Xfinity Series regulars A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs among others for the win. Ty Gibbs will be back again this week, in addition to Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, and Ross Chastain will be in the field for Saturday’s race.
As mentioned in last week’s newsletter, there should be more emphasis on place differential upside. 91.7% of the past 12 road course optimal lineups have featured no more than two drivers starting in the top 10. On average, 1.6 drivers per race make the optimal lineup starting in the top 10.
One thing to note about Watkins Glen, specifically, though is that while place differential is important, targeting drivers starting in the very back isn’t typically a profitable strategy. There have been 7 or more DNFs in each of the past three races at The Glen, but over the past 10 races here, there have been only 3 instances of a driver starting 30th or worse achieving a top 10 DraftKings score. On the other hand, the past two optimal lineups here have rostered four drivers from the top 20, and the one prior included three drivers from the top 10.
Go Bowling at the Glen (Cup Series)
After last week’s race, it would be very easy to say that McDowell, Suarez, and Elliott will be the drivers to beat. However, despite their similarities, not all road courses are the same. Watkins Glen features more elevation changes than Indy, a chicane, and a stretch of esses that require quite of technical driving. Repeat performances are certainly possible, but McDowell had the fastest car all weekend and Suarez landed on the pole. Neiehter of those things are common occurrences.
Speaking of Chase Elliott, he still needs a win to get into the playoffs. With just Watkins Glen and Daytona remaining in the regular season, this week presents his best opportunity. He and teammate Kyle Larson have each won 2 of the past 4 races at The Glen. It’s also the site of his first NASCAR win.
Another driver who needs a win to get into the playoffs is A.J. Allmendinger. While the results show a disappointing 16th-place finish last week at Indy, that doesn’t paint the full picture. Allmendinger was the only driver to score double-digit fast laps (21 to be exact), good enough for a 27.3% clip! As long as the Penske cars don’t get around him this week, he’s certainly capable of a win this week.
From a DFS perspective, the race is scheduled for just 90 laps, meaning there are a maximum of 63 dominator points available. Place differential is likely the safer route for constructing lineups. However, over the past 10 races at Watkins Glen, the top 20 starting positions have accounted for 77% of top 10 DraftKings scores. Furthermore, since NASCAR DFS was introduced, 69% of optimal lineups at The Glen have come from drivers starting 20th or better. As we saw last week at Indy, if restarts don’t result in a wreck, there is the potential for long green flag runs with spread out racing, thus limiting place differential potential. Strategy will likely depend on practice and qualifying, so subscribe for more from our weekly breakdowns today!
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Final Lap
We will have much more lineup construction tidbits and advice in our race breakdowns, so join DailyFanRacing today to take advantage of the most comprehensive fantasy NASCAR coverage in the industry!
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As usual, for premium members, we will have full driver-by-driver breakdowns, expert rankings, and projections for each slate this weekend, in addition to a slate strategy article and podcast for Cup.
Have a great week, and we’ll look forward to you winning with us again this weekend!