NASCAR Cup Series Strategy Article
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What’s up everyone! It’s Luke here back with another NASCAR DFS strategy breakdown article for the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course! I hope you guys were able to win last week at Michigan! If not, let's change that right now! In this article, I’ll break down the race info, lineup construction strategies, and pivot points we can use to finish at the top of our tournaments on Sunday! Let's get into it!
Race Info
The Indy Road Course is a 2.4 mile track with 14 turns and lots of braking. There are lots of places to make mistakes, so the drivers are going to have to be perfect in order to score a good finish.
We’ve already seen how hard it's been to pass on road courses this season, and I’m not expecting anything different here. This means mistakes on the track or pit road will be costly.
There was a lot of chaos here last season, so NASCAR decided to move the restart zone back to try and prevent as much turn 1 mayhem. We’ll see if this works, but I doubt it’ll help if there’s overtime.
The weather this weekend actually looks good, so I’d be surprised if they’re unable to complete all of the laps on Sunday.
There are 82 laps in this race with 15 laps for stage 1, 20 laps for stage 2, and a 47 lap final stage to the finish.
The race locks at 2:42 EST on DraftKings and 2:30 on FanDuel. Now, let’s talk about lineup construction!
Lineup Construction
With only 82 laps, dominator points won’t play as big of a role like they usually do. On DraftKings, there’s a maximum of 57.4 points (No cautions) and only 8.2 on FanDuel.
This means that this will be a lower scoring slate and will favor drivers that offer place differential upside.
For cash games, we need to attack all of the quality PD plays as they offer upside and can be some of the top scoring drivers on the slate.
If William Byron finishes 15th, he would score 52 DK points and be a smash play at his price point. That’s not asking a lot for a driver in top tier equipment. Variance can happen, but these are the types of plays we can’t fade in cash because if they work, you’re dead.
I know Kevin Harvick isn’t really a road course driver, but he’s in a similar situation to Byron where he doesn’t have to do a lot to pay off at his price point. Harvick would score 41 DK points with a 20th place finish! That might not be as good of a score on FanDuel, but it’s not killing you either.
I feel like these two are the obvious drivers you need to build around in cash as they offer so much PD at affordable prices.
Allmendinger is another driver that feels safe for cash even though he doesn’t feel great about his car. We’re just looking for a finish around the top 10 which he’s capable of doing.
If you play these 3 together, you’re left with an average of $8,167 for your last 3 spots, so there’s a lot of ways you can go. Personally, I feel comfortable playing a Truex or a Shane as they offer a little PD and decent upside with their road course ability. After that, it’s kind of up to you for what you want to do with the last two roster spots.
For cash games, lock in the obvious PD plays and don’t overthink it. Now, let’s talk about some tournament strategy.
While place differential plays are nice, we still need to worry about hitting the right dominator(s) as those extra points could be the difference. This is where we have to consider guys like Reddick, Elliott, Larson, etc. I think they’re risky for cash as they can kill you with a mistake, but these drivers offer tournament winning upside if they dominate and score a good finish.
We can also attack more drivers that can score well by simply getting a good finish. Some examples for that are McDowell and Ty Gibbs.
If McDowell starts 4th and finishes 4th, he scores 40 DK points which is great at his price point and a smash play on FanDuel.
Gibbs is in the same situation but probably needs to move up a couple positions to have tournament winning upside.
I think we can attack a few more drivers starting closer to the front in tournaments, and we can mix them with some of the obvious place differential plays this slate has to offer.
Overall, we should build around the place differential plays for all formats, but we’re probably going to need to hit the dominator/winner to win tournaments. Finishing upside will mean a lot more than it usually does, which is something to keep in mind. Let’s move on to the pivot points section now!
GPP Pivot points
Starting with the 10k range, we have Truex, Reddick, Gisbergen, and Elliott. All of these guys will probably see ownership, but I like being overweight on Truex with the PD and winning potential he offers. A lot of people are going to be on Reddick because he won last year. He’s a great play, but I might be underweight because the team execution is not there right now. If he has a poor result, he’ll kill lineups, and you could gain some nice leverage being underweight. I don’t blame you if you play a lot of him.
Moving onto the 9k range, we have a few potential dominators with some place differential options. I think Kyle Busch is someone sneaky we can target as a pivot off of Reddick for a dominator up front. Reddick won here in this car last season, and Kyle has shown a lot of speed on the road courses in 2023. It’s a risky option, but I think his ownership will be low for someone with potential race winning upside. There’s not much else that sticks out for pivots or leverage, but it’s hard to ignore Buescher’s recent success with back to back wins.
The 8k range consists of a lot of PD options, but I like being overweight on Cindric here for tournaments. I like the momentum he has from last week and think he has top 10 upside which is great at his price point. I know Suarez won at Sonoma last season, but I’m probably not playing much of him. I just think he’ll get passed early and won’t offer enough upside. People love playing the pole-sitter, so I’m sure he’ll have a little more ownership than he should.
The 7k range is where we get to some of those interesting drivers up front. I know it’s risky, but I like being overweight on Gibbs and McDowell here. Both just need to finish around where they’re starting to put up a good score. They’re priced right by Harvick, so maybe that’s how you get off of him if you’re struggling to do so. I think you could also pair them with Harvick in a balanced build. McDowell is definitely the riskier of the two, so I’ll have more Gibbs across my lines.
Once we get below the 7k range, this is where things start to get ugly. There are lots of PD options, but how many of them are really reliable? A lot of them feel questionable and might lack the upside we’re looking for.
Jones will probably be very popular in the 6k range, but I really don’t trust these Legacy Motor Club cars as they haven’t shown much speed this weekend. Keselowski hasn’t shown much speed, but it’s hard to ignore his recent form with four top 10’s over the last five races. It seems like RFK have really taken a turn in the right direction, and I’m willing to play those guys even though they were slow in practice. I’m not sure how popular Button will be, but I don’t mind being overweight on him with the road course experience he has as well.
In the 5k range, I love being overweight on Todd Gilliland. He’s been fast on the road courses this season and offers a lot of upside at a cheap price point. Also, Front Row Motorsports is bringing him back next season which might give him an extra boost of confidence. After him, we have a lot of PD options in Almirola, Rockenfeller, Stenhouse, and Preece. I have the most confidence in Preece, so I’ll probably be overweight on him as he’s one of the few drivers I like in this bottom tier. Everyone else just feels questionable.
Overall, this looks like an interesting slate to attack, so I’ll probably be building either 20 or 150 lineups. I haven’t decided yet but either way, I’m looking forward to building all my lineups and hopefully crushing with everyone that’s a part of this amazing community!
Alright, that’ll do it here for me. I’m hoping this article helps you guys from a tournament perspective on how to attack the slate and wish you all the best of luck on Sunday! Feel free to ask me any questions in the Discord @laltmayer, and let’s keep the momentum going! You can follow me on Twitter @DFS_NASCAR_Zone! Good luck everyone!